Friday, November 27, 2009

Dubai in Debt; Dollar Rises

My Fellow Americans,

Depending on how you look at it, this financial crisis/recession can be the best time to be alive or the worst.  For me, I'm the eternal optimist.  I see this as fun and exciting...and VERY interesting.  This is better than any reality show out there...because it's REAL.

From the UK Times Online:

"Stock markets in Asia and the United States fell sharply while the dollar and Japanese yen rose as investors shifted their money to their perceived safety.

UK banks were also revealed to be the biggest lenders to the United Arab Emirates, which includes Dubai, with more than $50 billion owed by the Gulf state’s residents.

In another blow to the beleaguered UK banking sector, the Royal Bank of Scotland emerged as the largest single loan-arranger to Dubai World, the state-owned conglomerate that sparked this latest financial crisis when it sought a standstill on its debt repayments on Wednesday."

And with this financial chaos and uncertainty, came a rise in the dollar:

"The dollar gained against most other major currencies Friday as investors sought safety amid fears that Dubai may default on its debt.

'The markets have been riddled by a fresh round of panic, with the reaction even more aggressive than what we have recently seen, as a combination of the lightened post-US holiday trade and news that Dubai is seeking a six-month standstill on its debt, weigh on sentiment," said Joel Kruger of Forex Capital Markets.'"

Not to mention the fall in oil:

"Oil prices settled down more than 2 percent at about $76 a barrel on Friday as fears of possible defaults in Dubai convulsed financial markets and boosted safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar."

What does all this mean?  I am by no means a financial expert, yet.  I'm getting there.  It's quite a process trying to learn what all this means.

I think we are looking at a double-dip (or "W") recession.  With all the uncertainty out there, how could you expect anything less?  Nobody can predict what will happen with any degree of exactitude. 

I would really like to know what you think.  This kind of post works best as a discussion in my opinion.

I do believe that with all this debt and deficit spending out there, the light is rather dim at the end of the tunnel.  The coming collapse of the commercial real estate market, as I spoke about earlier this week, is just another reason I don't see any real recovery until after 2012 or 2013 (maybe later).

But, I said I was an optimist, didn't I?  And I am.  I really think that this is a time of opportunity as the Great Depression was.  You just have to look for it.   If you read Robert Kiyosaki, he always talks about this time we find ourselves in being the greatest transfer of wealth in history.

I think we are in for a plethora of opportunities in the coming years.  You just need to look for it.

Quote of the Week and my recommendations for books to read during your down time this Christmas season coming tomorrow.

(Picture from UK Daily Mail)

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